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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."